Highest temperature in Seoul on July 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 10 July 2026, Seoul will face its peak daytime heat as the Incheon International Airport Station records the highest temperature for the day, a metric that determines the outcome of this prediction market. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% for a “YES” outcome suggests the market expects the temperature to fall outside the defined range, yet recent data indicates a significant divergence from this pessimistic stance.

Historical patterns frame this probability with caution, as South Korea recently experienced record-breaking early July temperatures, with July 8 hitting 37.8°C and Seoul reaching 37.7°C—the highest in 117 years of records [1][6]. Tropical nights have also persisted for 22 consecutive days, breaking a century-old record and indicating sustained heat stress that rarely dissipates quickly [2][4]. Average July highs in Seoul typically range from 81°F to 85°F (27.2°C to 29.4°C), rarely exceeding 91°F (32.8°C), but the current heatwave has pushed conditions well beyond these norms [5].

Traders should monitor the Korea Meteorological Administration’s daily heatwave advisories and Wunderground’s real-time updates for the Incheon station, as these are the primary catalysts for resolution [3]. Recent reports confirm that South Korea recorded its second-hottest July since 1973, with an average temperature of 27.1°C, reinforcing the likelihood of extreme highs continuing into early July [8]. The settlement window ends at 12:00 UTC on 10 July, meaning any sudden cloud cover or rain could alter the final reading, but the prevailing trend points toward sustained high temperatures.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Seoul on July 10? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.