Highest temperature in Seoul on July 12?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul is bracing for peak summer heat as traders assess the likelihood of record-breaking temperatures at Incheon International Airport on 12 July 2026. The market currently implies a 0% probability of the event occurring, suggesting the crowd views the specific temperature threshold as unattainable given historical norms and current forecasts.

Historical data frames this near-zero probability as rational, with July in Seoul typically seeing daily highs between 29°C and 30°C, rarely exceeding 33°C [9]. While South Korea recently recorded its second-hottest July since 1973 with an average of 27.1°C and Seoul hitting a record early-July peak of 37.7°C in 2025, such extremes are anomalous rather than baseline [6][7]. The 22 consecutive “tropical nights” above 25°C observed in July 2025 indicate a warming trend, yet the 0% implied probability suggests the specific contract threshold likely exceeds even these recent record-breaking conditions [1].

Traders should monitor real-time updates from the Korea Meteorological Administration and Wunderground’s hourly logs for Incheon, as settlement depends strictly on the highest temperature recorded at that station [2]. No major weather announcements are scheduled for the immediate window, but the dependency on a single station means localized cloud cover or wind shifts could suppress readings below the threshold. The divergence between sportsbook-style heat lines and this prediction market’s flat odds highlights a consensus that the target temperature is statistically improbable for this specific date and location.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Seoul on July 12? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.