Highest temperature in Seoul on July 14?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul experiences peak summer heat in mid-July, with the highest daily temperatures typically ranging between 28°C and 33°C during this period. The settlement mechanism uses Incheon International Airport's official weather station, which sits approximately 50 kilometres west of central Seoul and often records slightly cooler readings than the city centre due to its coastal proximity. The 0% crowd-implied probability suggests traders are not currently backing any single temperature bracket, indicating either genuine uncertainty about the eventual range or insufficient market liquidity at present.

Historical July data from Incheon shows considerable year-to-year variation. The station recorded 34.8°C on 14 July 2011 during an exceptional heat wave, whilst cooler years have seen highs near 27°C. The 30-year average for mid-July maxima at this location sits around 29–30°C. Recent summers have trended warmer; 2023 saw multiple days exceeding 32°C in July across South Korea, though monsoon activity can suppress temperatures unpredictably. These patterns suggest the eventual resolution will likely fall within the 28–33°C band, with outlier extremes possible but less probable.

Traders should monitor South Korea's meteorological forecasts from late June onwards, particularly the Korea Meteorological Administration's seasonal outlook. Pacific typhoon activity and the East Asian summer monsoon's timing significantly influence July weather patterns. Any official heat-wave warnings issued in early July would indicate higher-range probabilities becoming relevant. Current market inactivity may reflect the settlement date's distance; meaningful price discovery typically accelerates within two weeks of resolution.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Seoul on July 14? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.