Highest temperature in Seoul on July 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul’s Incheon International Airport is set to record its peak temperature for 16 July 2026, with the outcome determined by the highest degree Celsius reading at the station. The prediction market currently shows a 0% implied probability for any “YES” outcome, yet Polymarket data reveals a different narrative: the frontrunner is 29°C at 39%, followed closely by 30°C at 35% [1]. This divergence suggests the “YES” label may be misaligned with the actual distribution of temperature ranges, as traders are actively pricing specific Celsius thresholds rather than a binary condition.

Historical July highs in Seoul typically range between 28°C and 34°C, with Incheon often slightly cooler due to coastal influence. The 39% weighting on 29°C aligns with recent mid-July patterns where temperatures hovered near the lower end of the summer spectrum, while the 35% stake on 30°C reflects uncertainty about a potential heat spike. Such clustering around 29–30°C mirrors comparable cases from 2023 and 2024, where Incheon’s peak stayed within this band despite broader Seoul highs exceeding 32°C.

Traders should monitor the Korea Meteorological Administration’s daily forecast updates and Wunderground’s real-time hourly logs, as these are the primary catalysts for settlement. A sudden shift in monsoon activity or an unexpected heat dome could push readings above 30°C, altering the implied probabilities. No major weather announcements are scheduled before the 12:00 UTC settlement window, but live data from Wunderground will provide the definitive resolution source [1].

Sources: 1

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Seoul on July 16? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.