Highest temperature in Seoul on July 18?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul experiences peak summer heat in mid-July, with the highest daily temperature on 18 July 2026 expected to fall within a defined range measured at Incheon International Airport's weather station. The 0% crowd-implied probability suggests traders are either uncertain about the specific temperature brackets offered or expect conditions outside the listed options, though this reading requires scrutiny given July's consistent thermal patterns across South Korea.

Historical records from the Korea Meteorological Administration show that mid-July temperatures at Incheon typically peak between 28–32°C, with occasional excursions to 33–34°C during heat waves. The past decade's data reveals only three instances of temperatures exceeding 34°C in this period, making extreme heat scenarios statistically uncommon but not unprecedented. The 2018 heat wave pushed Seoul's maximum to 39.6°C in August, demonstrating the region's vulnerability to anomalous conditions, though July typically remains cooler than subsequent months.

Traders should monitor the Western Pacific subtropical high-pressure system's positioning in early July, which determines whether warm, moist air masses dominate the Korean peninsula. The Korea Meteorological Administration's extended forecast, typically issued two weeks prior to the settlement date, will provide the most actionable guidance on whether atmospheric conditions favour typical seasonal temperatures or anomalous heat. Any tropical cyclone activity in the Western Pacific could redirect moisture patterns and suppress peak temperatures, whilst persistent high-pressure ridging would elevate them. Real-time updates from Wunderground's historical data feed will confirm the final measurement once 18 July concludes.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.