Highest temperature in Seoul on July 23?

Platform comparison

Market context

In practical terms, this contract is a bet on whether Incheon International Airport will top out at **27°C**, **28°C** or something outside that band on 23 July, with the current crowd leaning to a **27°C** peak. Polymarket’s contract page shows **27°C at 49%** and **28°C at 30%**, while the market has been described as having a **0% YES** crowd-implied probability in the current feed, a mismatch that suggests either a data-display issue or a market that is effectively pricing only the outcome buckets rather than a simple yes/no view.[1]

July in Seoul is normally hot, humid and unsettled, which makes intraday highs sensitive to cloud cover and rain timing rather than just seasonal averages. A typical July day in Seoul reaches about **28°C** and falls to around **21°C**, with rain on roughly **43%** of days, so a mid-to-high 20s outcome is broadly consistent with climatology even if the exact airport reading depends on local conditions at the station.[2] That helps explain why the market is clustered tightly around 27–28°C rather than pricing a much hotter extreme.

For traders, the key catalysts are the day’s weather progression at and around Incheon Airport, especially whether morning cloud, sea breeze or passing showers cap the afternoon maximum before the settlement window closes. The settlement source is Wunderground’s daily history for **Incheon Intl Airport Station**, so the relevant datapoint is the highest recorded temperature on the day, not a citywide forecast or a Seoul average. With no obvious sports-style line to anchor against, the closest comparison is the market’s own distribution versus the seasonal norm, and that leaves the main divergence as the gap between the contract’s bucket pricing and the separate 0% YES display.[1][2]

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.