Highest temperature in Seoul on July 24?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world driver here is the **highest temperature at Incheon International Airport Station** on 24 July 2026, and the market is effectively asking whether that daily maximum lands in a higher Celsius band than the crowd currently expects. With the contract showing **0% YES**, the price implies an extreme consensus that the outcome sits in the lowest possible range, which is hard to square with the summer climatology for north-western South Korea and suggests either a very specific banding rule or a market that has simply not yet repriced any weather risk. July in Seoul and the surrounding region is typically hot and humid, with daily highs often around 30°C and frequent rain or monsoon influence rather than cool conditions.[2][3]

Historical context points to a market that should usually carry non-trivial upside risk rather than a near-zero read. Late July commonly sits in the hot part of the Korean summer, with high humidity, average highs close to 30°C, and stretches where apparent temperatures run materially higher than the thermometer reading.[2] Recent regional reporting also points to a transition out of monsoon-like rain and towards a stronger heat pattern, with the Korea Meteorological Administration forecasting daytime highs of 28 to 38°C on 24 July and 28 to 37°C on 25 July, alongside rain in the Seoul-Incheon area that could cap the peak but does not point to a cold outcome.[4]

For traders, the main catalysts are the **day-of forecast track**, the timing of any lingering rain bands, and whether cloud cover or showers suppress the afternoon maximum before the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC. Because the resolution source is Wunderground’s daily history page for **Incheon Intl Airport Station**, the decisive move is not the citywide narrative but the actual airport-station maximum recorded on the calendar day; that makes short-lived breaks in cloud or post-rain humidity spikes more important than broad regional averages. The current prediction-market line therefore appears to diverge sharply from the underlying weather setup, while the wider analysis consensus from meteorological coverage still leans towards a warm-to-hot result rather than an anomalously low one.[4]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Seoul on July 24? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.