Highest temperature in Seoul on July 25?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul's summer heat peaks in late July, with the city regularly experiencing temperatures exceeding 30°C during this period. The settlement will be determined by the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport Station on 25 July 2026, measured in Celsius and resolved via Weather Underground historical data. The 0% crowd-implied probability suggests traders are either uncertain about the outcome distribution or awaiting clarity on which temperature bands are available for trading.

Historical records show that Seoul's late-July highs typically range between 28–33°C, with occasional spikes above 34°C during heat waves. The Korea Meteorological Administration reported that July 2023 saw Seoul reach 33.1°C as a daily maximum, whilst the preceding decade's July averages hovered around 29–31°C. These patterns establish a baseline: temperatures in the 30–33°C band represent the modal expectation, whilst readings below 28°C or above 35°C would constitute outliers requiring unusual atmospheric conditions.

Traders monitoring this contract should track the East Asian monsoon forecast and any developing heat dome systems in the weeks preceding late July 2026. The Korea Meteorological Administration typically issues extended outlooks by early July, which will clarify whether conditions favour above-average or below-average temperatures. Additionally, the specific location—Incheon Airport, situated near the coast—may experience slightly cooler readings than central Seoul due to maritime influence, a factor worth accounting for when comparing this settlement to broader regional temperature expectations.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.