Highest temperature in Seoul on July 27?

Platform comparison

Market context

The figure that matters is the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport Station on 27 July 2026, not the feel-like temperature in Seoul or a citywide average. With the market currently implying **0% YES**, the price is effectively saying traders see the specified temperature band as outside the outcome they expect, despite a seasonal setup that usually favours warm to hot readings in late July. South Korea’s weather around this period is typically hot and humid, with daytime highs often near 30°C and the monsoon season sometimes lingering into late July.[2][3]

Historical context points towards a fairly ordinary summer distribution rather than an extreme outlier. KMA-linked reporting says temperatures from 27 July to 2 August are expected to sit in a broad summer range, with daytime values of 29–37°C and minimums of 23–26°C, which is above or near seasonal norms.[1] For a contract settled on the single-day high at an airport station, that means the market is more sensitive to whether showers, cloud cover, or a short heat spike arrive at the right time than to the general July climate. Compared with that broad seasonal backdrop, a 0% implied probability looks much lower than the climatological chance of a warm summer outcome, though it may still reflect the specific temperature band and resolution rules rather than a view on the raw high itself.[1][2][3]

For traders, the main catalysts are the Korea Meteorological Administration’s short-range forecasts, any sudden heat advisory or rain-band shift, and whether the monsoon front retreats quickly enough to allow clearer, hotter conditions over Incheon.[1][5] The key dependency is local weather at the airport station during the full calendar day, because brief rain or marine cloud can cap the recorded maximum even when Seoul itself remains warm. Sportsbook-style lines are not a natural reference point for a weather contract like this, so the useful comparison is between the market’s near-zero price, the seasonal forecast, and any new KMA update that changes the expected daytime ceiling.[1][5]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.