Highest temperature in Seoul on July 28?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul experiences peak summer heat in late July, with the 28th falling within the most intense phase of the East Asian monsoon season. Historical records show daily highs in the city regularly exceed 30°C during this window, with occasional spikes above 33°C when high-pressure systems dominate. The 0% crowd probability on this market reflects either extreme confidence in a specific temperature band or sparse liquidity, a pattern common in niche weather contracts where baseline climatology offers clearer guidance than betting markets typically provide.

Seoul's July temperatures have shown consistency over recent decades, with the Korea Meteorological Administration recording average highs near 29–30°C for late July. The 2022 heatwave pushed readings to 39°C in parts of the metropolitan area, though Incheon International Airport—the designated measurement station—typically registers 1–2°C cooler than central Seoul due to coastal influence. Comparable prediction markets on East Asian summer temperatures have historically clustered around the 30–33°C range when settlement dates fall in late July, with outlier outcomes (both above 35°C and below 28°C) occurring in roughly 15–20% of cases combined.

Traders should monitor the Western Pacific subtropical high-pressure system's position in early July, as its northward extent determines whether Seoul experiences typical monsoon conditions or a heat dome. The Japan Meteorological Agency and KMA issue extended forecasts by mid-July that typically narrow uncertainty bands. Any tropical cyclone activity in the region could suppress temperatures through cloud cover and precipitation, whilst blocking patterns favour sustained heat. Real-time atmospheric data becomes actionable from 20 July onwards, when 10-day forecasts gain reliability.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.