Highest temperature in Seoul on July 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event at hand is the official daily maximum temperature recorded for Seoul on 6 July 2026, measured at the Incheon International Airport Station and resolved via Wunderground data. While one prediction market currently shows a 0% implied probability for a “YES” outcome on a specific threshold, this stark divergence clashes with broader market consensus and climatological baselines. On Polymarket, the leading outcome is 26°C at 42.4%, with 27°C close behind at 40%, while Lines.com assigns a 40.5% chance to 28°C. Analysts note that early July Seoul climatology typically centres the mean daily high between 28°C and 30°C, making a 0% probability on any single band highly anomalous unless the threshold is implausibly extreme.

Historical precedents frame this discrepancy: July in Seoul rarely sees highs below 74°F (23.3°C), with averages climbing to 85°F (29.4°C) by mid-month, and the region recently endured its second-hottest July since 1973, averaging 27.1°C[7]. The 2023 record of 22 consecutive tropical nights above 25°C further underscores persistent heat[9]. Traders should monitor short-range forecasts from the Korea Meteorological Administration, as a recent 3.0% price surge in the 28°C contract signals fresh buying tied to narrowing forecast bands[2]. No official announcements are pending, but resolution hinges entirely on the official daily maximum recorded at noon Seoul time, making real-time forecast updates the critical catalyst for price movement.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.