Highest temperature in Seoul on June 10?

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Market context

Seoul's weather on 10 June 2026 will be measured by the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport Station, with settlement determined by Wunderground historical data. The market currently shows 0% implied probability across all temperature ranges, indicating either a data-loading issue or genuine uncertainty about which bracket will resolve.

Historical June temperatures in Seoul cluster around 23–28°C as daily highs, with occasional peaks near 30°C during early-summer heat waves. The Korea Meteorological Administration's thirty-year averages place mid-June highs at approximately 26°C, though individual years have ranged from 20°C to 32°C depending on monsoon timing and high-pressure systems. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders have not yet engaged with range-selection mechanics, leaving no meaningful divergence between prediction-market odds and consensus forecasts to compare against sportsbook or analyst positioning—because none exists yet.

Traders should monitor seasonal weather pattern announcements from the KMA in late May 2026, particularly regarding the onset of the East Asian summer monsoon and any early-heat-wave warnings. The timing of the Pacific high-pressure system relative to the Tibetan anticyclone will be the primary driver of whether temperatures trend toward the cooler (20–24°C) or warmer (28–32°C) ranges. Current atmospheric indices and long-range models from mid-May will provide the most actionable signals for range selection before the settlement window closes on 10 June at 12:00 UTC.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Best Prediction Markets is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Best Prediction Markets triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.