Highest temperature in Seoul on June 13?

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Market context

On 13 June 2026, Seoul's highest temperature will be measured at Incheon International Airport Station and recorded in degrees Celsius. The settlement will draw from Weather Underground's historical data for that specific location and date, with the final reading locked in at 12:00 UTC.

Seoul's June climate sits at the threshold between late spring and early summer, with daily highs typically ranging between 24°C and 28°C during this period. Historical records from the Korea Meteorological Administration show considerable year-to-year variation; June 2023 saw temperatures peak at 31.5°C in Seoul, whilst June 2020 remained cooler at 27.8°C. The 0% crowd probability currently assigned suggests traders view this as a binary outcome with no meaningful uncertainty, which diverges sharply from the inherent variability in seasonal weather patterns. Comparable prediction markets on temperature extremes typically reflect 15–40% implied probabilities for specific threshold outcomes, indicating the current market may be underpricing genuine climatic uncertainty.

The primary catalyst affecting this outcome remains the East Asian monsoon system's timing and intensity during early June 2026. Tropical cyclone activity in the Western Pacific, which can suppress temperatures through cloud cover and precipitation, typically peaks later in the season but occasionally influences conditions in mid-June. Traders should monitor the Japan Meteorological Agency's seasonal forecasts and any El Niño or La Niña updates from NOAA, as these drive broader atmospheric patterns across the Korean Peninsula. The settlement window closes at midday UTC, creating a hard deadline for any last-minute weather data revisions from Weather Underground's historical records.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.