Highest temperature in Seoul on June 17?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Seoul's weather on 17 June 2026 will be measured by the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport Station throughout that calendar day, with settlement determined by Wunderground historical data in Celsius. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% suggests traders are not positioning for any particular temperature band, indicating either uncertainty about the available ranges or insufficient liquidity to establish meaningful odds.

Mid-June in Seoul typically falls within the early monsoon season, with historical June temperatures at Incheon ranging between 20–28°C for daily highs, though extremes have occasionally pushed toward 30°C during heat waves. The 2018 Korean heat wave saw June temperatures exceed 29°C in Seoul, whilst more recent years have shown greater variability tied to Pacific high-pressure systems and tropical moisture patterns. Understanding the specific temperature brackets offered in this market requires reference to Wunderground's historical data structure, which segments daily highs into defined ranges that traders must evaluate against seasonal norms and anomalies.

Key variables affecting 17 June 2026 include the position of the North Pacific subtropical high-pressure system, timing of the East Asian monsoon onset, and any tropical cyclone activity in the Western Pacific during early-to-mid June. The Korea Meteorological Administration typically issues extended forecasts approximately two weeks in advance, providing traders with updated atmospheric pattern guidance. Current zero probability across all ranges may reflect settlement window timing—with the market closing at midday UTC on the resolution date—creating potential discrepancies between actual Seoul temperatures and recorded values at the airport station, which sits approximately 50 kilometres west of central Seoul.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Seoul on June 17? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Best Prediction Markets?

Zero. Best Prediction Markets routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Best Prediction Markets triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.