Highest temperature in Seoul on June 21?

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Market context

The outcome depends on the highest daytime reading at Incheon International Airport, rather than the city centre, so a Seoul heat narrative can still miss the settlement number if the airport stays a degree or two cooler. The current market is pricing a clear lean to **27°C** as the modal result, with the Polymarket front-runner at **37%** and **26°C** next at **29%**, which is a meaningful gap but not a consensus lock. That makes the contract look more like a narrow summer-trading range than a strong one-way weather call.[1]

Seasonally, late June in Seoul is already warm and humid, with average highs around **26°C** and typical daily highs rising into the upper 20s Celsius, while readings much above the high 20s are less common on a normal June day.[2][3] That historical profile is consistent with the market-implied split between 26°C and 27°C, and it also explains why a **0% YES** print at the time of observation may not reflect a literal impossibility so much as an ultra-specific contract structure and the current pricing of the exact terminal bucket. Recent regional weather coverage has also underlined how quickly South Korean temperatures can spike in early summer, including record-setting June heat in recent years, so traders are likely watching whether the day develops the kind of clear-sky, high-pressure setup that pushes airport maxima above the climatological norm.[7][9]

For catalysts, the main watchpoints are the morning and midday forecast updates, cloud cover, rainfall timing and wind direction near Incheon, because those are the variables most likely to shift the day’s high by a degree. The relevant settlement source is the Wunderground daily history page for Incheon Intl Airport Station, and the market resolves to the highest temperature recorded there on 21 June 2026, so late-hour changes before the noon UTC cut-off still matter if the local maximum has not yet printed.[1]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

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What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Best Prediction Markets?

Zero. Best Prediction Markets routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

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Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Best Prediction Markets triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.