Highest temperature in Seoul on June 22?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Seoul’s late-June heat profile usually supports a daytime high in the high 20s to low 30s Celsius, with average June highs rising through the month and rare excursions above 31°C at the city level.[1] That makes a **0% YES** crowd price look far below the climatological baseline, although the contract settles on the **highest temperature recorded at Incheon Intl Airport Station**, not Seoul city proper, so coastal moderation at the airport can keep the payout range narrower than inland Seoul readings.[1] Recent Korea-wide heat records also matter: South Korea’s hottest summers have clustered in 1994, 2018 and 2024, and weather reporting has highlighted a broader warming trend in extreme heat days.[2][3]

For cross-platform comparison, the key gap is between the market’s implied certainty and what standard weather context would suggest. Public weather-history data for Seoul shows a 2026-06-19 high of 91°F, equivalent to about 32.8°C, which is already in the range that would make a mid-20s or low-30s settlement plausible for this week if the same warm pattern persists.[5] That said, Incheon Airport is typically less volatile than central Seoul, so analyst-style climatology would usually treat the upper-20s to around 30°C as a more defensible base case than an extreme-heat outcome.[1] The market is therefore trading well below the kind of probability implied by recent regional heat narratives, and there is no obvious news-driven shock in the supplied sources that would justify a zero-per-cent line.[2][4]

Traders should watch the day’s actual forecast evolution for west-coast cloud cover, marine influence and any late-arriving monsoon boundary, because those factors can materially cap the airport’s maximum even when Seoul proper runs hotter. The contract’s settlement mechanics also make timing important: it uses the highest temperature for the full day at Incheon Intl Airport Station from Wunderground, with resolution based on that specific station rather than broader city averages.[Market description]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Best Prediction Markets?

Zero. Best Prediction Markets routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Best Prediction Markets triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.