Highest temperature in Seoul on June 24?

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Market context

On 24 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport will determine the settlement of a prediction market on Seoul’s peak heat, with the current crowd-implied probability of a “YES” outcome sitting at 0%. This near-zero stance reflects a market that has already priced in the likelihood that the day’s temperature will fall outside the specific range being wagered on, despite Seoul’s June climate typically producing highs between 25°C and 31°C (77°F–87°F)[1].

Historically, June in Seoul has seen daily highs climb steadily, increasing by 4°F across the month, rarely dipping below 68°F or exceeding 87°F[1]. Yet recent anomalies have shattered expectations: on 19 June 2026, Seoul recorded 91°F (32.8°C), the highest in this period[2], while nationwide, 59 weather stations logged record June averages between Saturday and Monday[6]. South Korea’s all-time heat record now stands at 41.0°C in Hongcheon[3], and Seoul itself hit 39.6°C in 2018, topping its prior peak[7]. These outliers suggest that while 0% implies certainty of an “NO”, the real-world volatility leaves room for divergence.

Traders should monitor the North Pacific high-pressure system, which drives hot, humid conditions in summer, potentially pushing temperatures toward 35°C (95°F) or higher[4]. The Korea Herald reports that June heat has already shattered records across the country, indicating a sustained trend of extreme warmth[6]. No official weather announcements are scheduled for 24 June, but real-time data from Wunderground will be the definitive settlement source[3]. The market’s 0% implied probability contrasts sharply with analyst consensus that June 2026 could see another record-breaking day, creating a notable odds divergence between prediction markets and cross-platform sportsbook lines.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Best Prediction Markets is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Best Prediction Markets?

Zero. Best Prediction Markets routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.