Highest temperature in Seoul on June 25?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 25 June 2026, traders are assessing the likelihood of the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport reaching a specific threshold, with the current crowd-implied probability for the “YES” outcome sitting at 0%. This stark divergence from active prediction markets like Polymarket, which assigns a 37% chance to 26°C and 33% to 27°C, suggests a significant misalignment between sportsbook lines and analyst consensus on this weather contract. The discrepancy highlights how different platforms interpret the same meteorological data, with some betting venues underestimating the probability of moderate heat while others reflect a more nuanced collective view.

Historical patterns in Seoul show that June daily highs typically rise from 77°F to 81°F, rarely dipping below 68°F or exceeding 87°F, with recent records indicating extreme variability. In 2025, South Korea experienced record-breaking June heat across 59 cities, including a peak of 30°C on 25 June—the highest ever for that date since observations began in 1907. Just days prior, on 19 June 2026, Incheon recorded 90.7°F (approximately 32.6°C), reinforcing the trend of unusually high temperatures in early summer. These comparable cases frame the current 0% probability as an outlier, potentially ignoring the region’s demonstrated capacity for heat spikes.

Traders should monitor upcoming weather forecasts from Wunderground and official announcements from the Korea Meteorological Administration, particularly any updates on cloud cover, wind patterns, or humidity levels that could influence peak temperatures. Recent reports from The Chosun Ilbo note that June 2025 saw unprecedented heat, suggesting that atmospheric conditions may remain volatile. With the settlement window ending on 25 June 2026 at 12:00 UTC, real-time data from Incheon Airport will be critical. Any sudden shifts in forecast models or official temperature readings could trigger rapid repricing across platforms, making this a high-stakes contract for cross-platform odds comparison.

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Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Seoul on June 25? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Best Prediction Markets — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What does it cost to trade on Best Prediction Markets?

Zero. Best Prediction Markets routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Best Prediction Markets triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.