Highest temperature in Seoul on June 26?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 26 June 2026, traders are assessing the likelihood of extreme heat in Seoul, specifically whether the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport will fall into a range that currently holds zero crowd-implied probability. The settlement window closes at noon UTC, with the resolution sourced from Wunderground’s daily high for that station. This market hinges on a single day’s thermal peak, making it highly sensitive to short-term atmospheric shifts rather than seasonal averages.

Historically, Seoul’s June highs climb from 77°F to 81°F, rarely dipping below 68°F or exceeding 87°F, with average highs around 80°F (26°C) [1][2]. While South Korea recently set an all-time record of 41.0°C in Hongcheon, Seoul itself has not breached 35°C in June during recent years [3]. The current 0% YES probability suggests the market expects temperatures to remain well within the typical band, diverging sharply from sportsbook lines that may offer odds on heat spikes if analysts anticipate a sudden monsoon-related surge or cold front collapse.

Traders should monitor the Korea Meteorological Administration’s daily forecasts for June 26, particularly any updates on cloud cover, wind speed, or incoming precipitation that could suppress peak temperatures [8]. A recent report notes that June heat has already shattered records across the country, with temperatures surpassing 25.9°C just days prior [6]. If a sudden heatwave develops overnight, the 0% probability could be mispriced, creating a divergence between prediction-market implied odds and emerging analyst consensus on extreme weather dependencies.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Seoul on June 26? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Best Prediction Markets — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Best Prediction Markets is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Best Prediction Markets?

Zero. Best Prediction Markets routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.