Highest temperature in Seoul on June 5?

Market context

On 5 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport Station will determine which range this market resolves to, with settlement occurring at midday UTC. The 0% crowd-implied probability suggests traders are either uncertain about the specific temperature bands available or consider the event too distant for reliable forecasting. Incheon's June climate typically sees daily highs between 24–28°C, though heat waves can push readings several degrees higher. Historical data from the Korea Meteorological Administration shows June temperatures at the airport station have occasionally exceeded 30°C during anomalous warm periods, though such occurrences remain relatively infrequent.

June represents the transition into South Korea's rainy season, with the onset of monsoon conditions typically occurring mid-month. Early June temperatures remain influenced by spring patterns rather than peak summer heat, making extreme highs less probable than midsummer months. The current zero probability across prediction markets contrasts with typical weather-forecasting confidence intervals for a date nearly two years distant, where even ensemble models struggle to narrow outcomes meaningfully. Traders monitoring this contract should track seasonal climate forecasts released by the Korea Meteorological Administration in May 2026, which may provide updated guidance on whether June 2026 develops as a typical or anomalous year for early-month temperatures.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Seoul on June 5? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Resolution source: This market settles from the official publication at https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI. A proposer submits the result to the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon, the two-hour challenge window opens, and the smart contract pays out in USDC.

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.