Highest temperature in Seoul on June 7?

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Market context

The highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport on 7 June 2026 will determine the resolution of this market, with Wunderground's historical weather database serving as the authoritative source. Seoul's early June climate typically sits in the warm-to-hot range, with average daily highs around 25–27°C, though anomalies occur regularly. The 0% crowd-implied probability suggests traders are either awaiting additional context or treating this as a calibration exercise rather than a genuine uncertainty bet.

Historical data from Incheon shows considerable variance in early June temperatures. The airport station has recorded highs ranging from 18°C in cooler years to 32°C during heat waves, with the 30-year median clustering between 26–28°C. June marks the transition toward Seoul's rainy season, yet anticyclonic systems from the Pacific frequently drive temperatures above seasonal norms. Comparable markets on regional weather extremes typically see meaningful probability mass distributed across 3–4 temperature bands rather than concentrated at zero, suggesting the current odds may reflect incomplete market participation or an unusually narrow resolution bracket.

Traders should monitor the Korean Meteorological Administration's seasonal forecasts, which typically issue 10-day outlooks by late May. Any advisory regarding heat waves or unusual pressure systems in the preceding weeks would shift expectations materially. The settlement window closes at midday on 7 June, allowing only morning observations to influence final resolution, which may explain cautious positioning if traders expect afternoon data to carry greater weight.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Seoul on June 7? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Best Prediction Markets is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Best Prediction Markets triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.