Highest temperature in Seoul on June 8?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Seoul's weather on 8 June 2026 will be measured by the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport Station throughout that calendar day. The settlement mechanism relies on historical data from Weather Underground, which archives daily temperature extremes for this specific meteorological station. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% suggests traders are either uncertain about the temperature thresholds offered or have not yet engaged with this contract in meaningful volume.

Early June in Seoul typically falls within the pre-monsoon transition period, with average daily highs ranging from 24–27°C depending on the specific year and atmospheric patterns. Historical records from Incheon show considerable year-to-year variance; some early Junes have recorded highs as low as 20°C during cooler weather systems, whilst others have reached 30°C or above during early heat waves. The absence of any meaningful probability allocation suggests the market lacks sufficient trader participation to establish consensus on which temperature bracket is most likely, rather than indicating genuine uncertainty about Seoul's climate patterns for that date.

Traders monitoring this contract should track seasonal weather forecasts released by the Korea Meteorological Administration in the weeks preceding 8 June, particularly any advisories regarding early-season heat or unusual cold fronts. The North Pacific high-pressure system's positioning in early June significantly influences Seoul temperatures; anomalously strong ridging can drive readings well above seasonal norms. Real-time forecast updates from major meteorological services typically become reliable only 7–10 days before the settlement date, meaning current probability assessments may shift substantially once more precise weather models become available.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Seoul on June 8? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Best Prediction Markets is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Best Prediction Markets?

Zero. Best Prediction Markets routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.