Highest temperature in Seoul on June 9?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 9 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport Station will determine which range this market resolves to, with settlement occurring at midday UTC. The 0% crowd-implied probability suggests traders are either confident the actual high will fall outside all offered ranges or are simply absent from this particular contract. Incheon's weather station serves as the official measurement point for Seoul metropolitan area temperature data, making historical records from this location the relevant benchmark for calibrating expectations.

Seoul's early June climate typically sits between 23°C and 28°C for daily highs, though extremes occasionally breach these bounds. The 2018 heatwave pushed June temperatures above 30°C in the capital region, whilst cooler systems have kept highs in the low 20s during unsettled years. A decade of Incheon data shows June 9th specifically has recorded highs ranging from 21°C to 29°C, with most years clustering around 25–27°C. This historical spread provides the essential context for evaluating whether the offered ranges capture realistic outcomes or leave significant gaps.

The primary catalyst affecting June 2026 temperatures will be the positioning of the North Pacific high-pressure system and any early monsoon influence moving northward from the South China Sea. Korea Meteorological Administration seasonal outlooks, typically released in May, will offer the most concrete guidance on whether anomalous warmth or coolness is expected. Current 0% pricing reflects either extreme confidence in a specific range or minimal trading activity; either way, traders should verify the exact temperature brackets offered before committing capital, as even narrow misses will result in complete loss.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What does it cost to trade on Best Prediction Markets?

Zero. Best Prediction Markets routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Best Prediction Markets triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.