Highest temperature in Seoul on May 26?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Seoul's maximum temperature on 26 May 2026 will be measured at Incheon International Airport Station and resolved against historical Weather Underground records. The settlement window closes at midday UTC, capturing the full calendar day's thermal range across the metropolitan region's primary weather observation point.

Late May in Seoul typically sits within a warm, pre-monsoon window. Historical data from the past decade shows maximum temperatures on 26 May ranging between 24°C and 29°C, with an average around 26–27°C. The 0% crowd probability currently assigned suggests traders are either awaiting substantive forecasting data or treating this as a placeholder market pending seasonal pattern clarification. Comparable May-date markets on prediction platforms show modest divergence from meteorological consensus—sportsbooks rarely price weather granularly, whilst prediction markets often reflect wider confidence intervals around specific daily maxima than traditional forecasters publish.

The key catalyst remains the release of extended-range forecasts from the Korea Meteorological Administration and international models (GFS, ECMWF) as May 2026 approaches. Anomalous spring patterns—including early heat waves or delayed warming—could shift the implied distribution materially. Traders should monitor whether any Atlantic or Pacific teleconnection patterns (such as persistent high-pressure systems over East Asia) emerge in seasonal outlooks during the months preceding the resolution date. Current pricing reflects genuine forecast uncertainty rather than market inefficiency, given the distance to the event and the inherent variability of single-day temperature maxima.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Best Prediction Markets?

Zero. Best Prediction Markets routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Best Prediction Markets triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.