Highest temperature in Seoul on May 28?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Seoul's weather on 28 May 2026 will be measured by the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport Station on that date. The settlement will draw from Wunderground's historical weather database, which logs daily temperature extremes in Celsius. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% suggests traders are not yet engaging with this contract, despite it being a straightforward meteorological measurement with a clear resolution source.

Historical Seoul temperatures in late May provide essential context. Over the past two decades, the city has recorded highs ranging from 24°C to 32°C during this period, with an average maximum around 27–28°C. The 0% probability reading appears disconnected from seasonal norms, indicating either minimal market participation or a technical issue with how the contract is displayed across platforms. Comparable weather prediction markets typically show non-zero probabilities across all temperature bands when sufficient liquidity exists, even for unlikely outcomes.

The primary catalyst for this market is the approach of late May 2026, when spring transitions toward early summer in South Korea. Traders should monitor seasonal forecasting models from the Korea Meteorological Administration, which typically release extended outlooks in April. Any unusual atmospheric patterns—such as early heat waves or persistent cloud cover—would shift the probability distribution across temperature ranges. Until the market attracts meaningful volume, the 0% reading should be treated as a liquidity signal rather than a genuine assessment of temperature likelihood.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Seoul on May 28? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Best Prediction Markets — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Best Prediction Markets is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Best Prediction Markets triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.