Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai’s outcome will be driven by the highest reading at Pudong Airport on 1 August, not by the citywide average, so the contract needs a genuine intraday heat spike rather than a merely warm afternoon. Seasonal guides put early August Shanghai in the low-30s Celsius on a typical afternoon, with average highs around 31–33°C and humid conditions, which makes the market’s current 0% YES pricing look aggressive if traders believe a routine summer peak could reach the upper end of that range.[1][4][5][17]

Historically, Shanghai can run far hotter than its monthly norm. One historical weather source lists the city’s all-time high at 41°C, set on 8 August 2013, while other August climatology pages show that 1 August has previously produced highs around 30.7°C on average and can move into the mid-30s on hot years.[1][8] That means sportsbook-style pricing, if available, would normally sit well above zero for a contract defined against a specific weather station on a summer date, whereas the current prediction-market implied probability suggests the crowd is discounting the chance of an exceptional reading, or simply seeing the contract as narrowly hard to settle in the top band.[1][4][8]

For traders, the main catalysts are the day-of forecast updates and any heatwave or typhoon signals that alter the afternoon ceiling. Shanghai’s weather profile in August combines high humidity, rainfall risk and occasional heat alerts, and recent reporting has shown the city issuing its highest heatwave warnings during intense summer spells, which can lift the odds of an extreme print if skies clear and winds stay light.[6][7][10] Because settlement is tied to a single airport station and the window closes at 12:00 UTC, the most important watchpoints are the early-morning temperature trend, cloud cover, rain bands and whether the day’s peak arrives before or after the settlement cutoff, since those details can matter more than the full-day city forecast.[1][4][6]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 1? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.