Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai's maximum temperature on 11 August 2026 will be recorded at Pudong International Airport Station and resolved against Weather Underground's Daily Observations table, which takes precedence over summary high-low figures in case of discrepancy. The market currently shows zero probability assigned to any outcome, suggesting either incomplete price discovery or pending settlement range definitions that traders are awaiting.

August represents peak summer in Shanghai, with historical daily highs typically ranging from 32–35°C during this period. The 2025 August average maximum reached 34.2°C across the month, whilst the preceding decade's August peaks have consistently fallen between 36–38°C on the hottest days. Extreme heat events exceeding 40°C occur irregularly but have been recorded in August during particularly intense heatwaves; the 2013 August peak reached 40.6°C. Current market pricing at 0% suggests either that the resolution ranges have not yet been published or that traders are withholding positions until clarity emerges on the specific temperature brackets available.

Traders should monitor China Meteorological Administration forecasts released in late July and early August, which typically provide 10–14 day outlooks for Shanghai's temperature trajectory. Typhoon activity in the Western Pacific during early August could materially suppress temperatures through cloud cover and precipitation, whilst high-pressure systems would elevate them. The Shanghai Municipal Government's heat alert system, which issues warnings when temperatures exceed 35°C, may provide early signals of exceptional conditions. Cross-platform comparison shows prediction markets have not yet populated odds on this contract, whilst traditional weather services offer deterministic rather than probabilistic forecasts for specific dates.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.