Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai's weather on 16 August 2026 will determine the highest temperature recorded at Pudong International Airport Station that day, measured in degrees Celsius and sourced from Weather Underground's Daily Observations table. The market currently shows 0% implied probability, suggesting traders expect the actual reading to fall outside whatever range this contract specifies—though the exact temperature bands are not detailed in available documentation.

August represents Shanghai's hottest month climatologically, with daily highs typically ranging between 32–34°C, though readings above 35°C occur in roughly one-third of years during this period. Historical data from the past decade shows extreme temperatures occasionally exceeding 37°C during heat waves, whilst cooler-than-average days might settle around 30°C. The 0% probability reading appears disconnected from seasonal norms, suggesting either the market's temperature thresholds are set unusually high or traders are pricing in an extraordinary weather event. Cross-platform comparison data from other prediction markets or weather-focused betting sites would clarify whether this represents genuine consensus or an outlier valuation.

Traders monitoring this contract should track China Meteorological Administration forecasts released in early August 2026, which typically provide reliable 10-day outlooks for major cities. El Niño or La Niña conditions active during mid-2026 could influence whether the summer proves hotter or cooler than the 30-year average. The resolution mechanism's explicit reliance on Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures creates potential for disputes if station equipment malfunctions or data corrections occur post-settlement.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.