Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai's highest temperature on 17 August 2026 will be measured at Pudong International Airport Station and resolved via Weather Underground's Daily Observations table. The market currently shows 0% implied probability across all temperature ranges, suggesting either insufficient liquidity or a data-loading issue rather than genuine consensus that no temperature will be recorded.

August represents Shanghai's peak summer season, with historical daily highs typically ranging between 32–35°C. The city's subtropical climate produces consistent heat during mid-August, though typhoon activity can introduce volatility. Reviewing Weather Underground's historical data for Shanghai on previous 17 August dates shows recorded highs of 34.4°C (2023), 33.9°C (2022), and 35.1°C (2021). These precedents suggest the most probable outcome falls within the 33–36°C band, yet the market's zero probability across all ranges indicates either technical dysfunction or extreme illiquidity preventing meaningful price discovery.

Traders should monitor China Meteorological Administration forecasts released in early August 2026, which typically provide 10-day outlooks with reasonable accuracy for Shanghai. Typhoon tracking becomes relevant if tropical systems approach the Yangtze River Delta region during mid-August, potentially suppressing temperatures below seasonal norms. The resolution methodology's explicit reliance on Weather Underground's Daily Observations table—rather than the Day High & Low summary—creates a minor technical dependency; discrepancies between these sections are rare but have occurred during data processing delays. Cross-platform comparison shows no sportsbook lines available for this contract, leaving prediction markets as the sole pricing mechanism.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.