Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 20?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai's weather on 20 August 2026 will determine the highest temperature recorded at Pudong International Airport Station that day, measured in degrees Celsius and sourced from Weather Underground's Daily Observations table. The market currently shows 0% implied probability across all temperature ranges, suggesting either incomplete pricing or a technical issue in the odds aggregation, as historical August temperatures in Shanghai consistently fall within measurable bands.

August represents Shanghai's hottest month, with daily highs typically ranging between 32–35°C, though extremes have reached 40°C during heat waves. The 2013 heat wave produced a city record of 40.8°C on 6 August, whilst more recent Augusts (2020–2023) saw peak temperatures between 34–37°C. This historical distribution should anchor expectations for any given date; the 0% crowd probability across all ranges suggests traders have not yet engaged with the market or that platform liquidity remains minimal. Cross-platform comparison data from major sportsbooks and other prediction markets is not currently available for weather-specific contracts of this granularity, limiting arbitrage opportunities.

Traders should monitor China Meteorological Administration forecasts released in early August 2026, which typically provide 10-day outlooks with reasonable accuracy for temperature bands. Typhoon activity in the Western Pacific during late summer can suppress temperatures significantly, whilst high-pressure systems drive heat extremes. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on 20 August, requiring traders to account for any timezone conversion between Weather Underground's recording methodology and UTC timestamps.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 20? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.