Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 1 July 2026, the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station will record its peak daytime temperature, a real-world event that determines the outcome of this prediction contract. Historical data shows July is Shanghai’s hottest month, with average highs at Pudong reaching 88°F (31.1°C), rarely dipping below 75°F (23.9°C) or exceeding 95°F (35°C)[4][9]. While the all-time high for Shanghai was 40.9°C at the Xujiahui station in 1872, recent ensemble forecasts for early July 2026 cluster near 27–28°C, suggesting a milder but still warm day[1][3]. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% YES appears to contradict these forecasts, as Polymarket data assigns a 77% chance to 26°C and 17% to 27°C, indicating a significant divergence between the implied odds and model consensus[1][2].

Traders should monitor real-time weather updates from Wunderground and National Weather Service feeds for Pudong, as sudden shifts in cloud cover or humidity could alter the peak temperature[1][5]. China recently experienced its hottest July on record since 1961, raising the possibility of anomalous heatwaves that might push temperatures above forecast ranges[7]. No major announcements or scheduled events are expected to directly influence local weather, but the absence of strong monsoon activity could be a key dependency. The settlement window ends at 12:00 UTC on 1 July, so any late-morning temperature spikes will be decisive. Analysts note that while 26°C is the frontrunner, the 0% YES probability implies a market mispricing relative to the 27–28°C forecast cluster[1][2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 1? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.