Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai faces its peak summer heat on 13 July 2026, with the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station expected to record a daily maximum that will determine the outcome of this weather contract. Current forecasts indicate daily highs between 30°C and 37°C (86°F to 97°F) for the month, while the specific hourly outlook for today suggests a maximum of 32°C at 14:00 local time [1][4]. The crowd-implied probability of 0% YES suggests the market believes the temperature will fall outside the specific range required for a win, likely anticipating a reading below the threshold or within a different bracket entirely.

Historical July data for Shanghai shows temperatures frequently exceeding 35°C (95°F), with recent years recording peaks as high as 38°C (100°F) around mid-month [3][6]. In the first ten days of July, highs average 29.8°C, rising to near 30.7°C from the 11th to the 20th, a period that aligns precisely with the settlement window [9]. This consistent upward trend in mid-July temperatures frames the current 0% probability as a potential mispricing if the specific range in question covers typical high-summer values, though the divergence may reflect a narrow bracket that excludes the forecasted 32°C peak.

Traders should monitor the real-time Wunderground history for the Pudong station, as the market resolves strictly on the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day [1]. The immediate catalyst is the 14:00 local time peak forecast of 32°C, which will be the definitive figure if no higher spike occurs later in the afternoon [4]. With precipitation expected at 9.4 mm and wind speeds of 5 m/s, any sudden cloud cover or rain could suppress temperatures below the historical average, directly impacting the final resolution value [10].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 13? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.