Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 2?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event underpinning this contract is the peak daily temperature recorded at Shanghai Pudong International Airport on 2 July 2026, measured in degrees Celsius. Historical data confirms that July is Shanghai’s hottest month, with daily highs routinely exceeding 30°C and frequently climbing toward 35°C or higher[1][2]. In 2025, the temperature reached 38°C on a July afternoon, while extreme peaks have touched 40°C in past summers[1][4]. Given that the current crowd-implied probability for a specific outcome sits at 0%, traders should interpret this as a market either mispricing the baseline heat or betting on an unusually cool anomaly that contradicts decades of climatic patterns[1][2].

No immediate weather announcements or typhoon warnings are forecast to disrupt the heatwave expected during this period, as the plum rainy season typically concludes by early July, leaving clearer skies and higher temperatures[2]. The primary catalyst for traders is the hourly temperature log from Wunderground, which will determine the settlement; any sudden cloud cover or unforecasted precipitation could lower the peak, though such events are statistically rare in mid-July[2]. Analyst consensus on Shanghai’s summer climate strongly supports high temperatures, creating a meaningful divergence between the 0% prediction-market probability and the near-certain expectation of heat exceeding 30°C found in cross-platform odds comparisons[1][3]. Traders monitoring this contract should watch for real-time updates from AccuWeather, which currently forecasts daily highs between 83°F and 94°F for July 2026[3].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 2? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.