Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 25?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai's highest temperature on 25 July 2026 will be measured at Pudong International Airport Station and resolved against Wunderground historical data. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on that date, capturing the full diurnal cycle for the day in question. Current crowd-implied probability sits at 0%, suggesting either extreme confidence in a particular temperature band or minimal trading activity across all resolution brackets.

July temperatures in Shanghai historically cluster between 32–36°C, with occasional peaks above 37°C during heat waves. The city experiences its most intense heat in late July and early August, driven by the East Asian summer monsoon and urban heat island effects. Comparable years show that extreme heat events (above 38°C) occur roughly once per decade in Shanghai's records, whilst temperatures in the 34–36°C range represent the modal outcome for mid-to-late July. The 0% probability reading suggests traders may be concentrated in a single temperature band, or the market has attracted limited participation relative to other weather contracts.

Traders should monitor China Meteorological Administration forecasts released in the week preceding 25 July 2026, which typically provide reliable 10-day outlooks. Tropical cyclone activity in the Western Pacific during July can suppress temperatures significantly, whilst high-pressure systems over eastern China drive sustained heat. Recent patterns show increasing volatility in peak summer temperatures across the Yangtze River Delta region, though long-term seasonal trends remain stable. Real-time atmospheric conditions in early-to-mid July will be the primary catalyst for repricing across temperature bands.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.