Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 28?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai's maximum temperature on 28 July 2026 will be recorded at Pudong International Airport Station and resolved against historical weather data. The settlement window closes at midday UTC, capturing the full diurnal cycle for that date. Current crowd pricing shows 0% implied probability across the market, suggesting either extreme confidence in a specific temperature band or minimal trading activity on this particular contract.

July represents Shanghai's peak summer season, with historical daily maxima typically ranging from 32–35°C during this period. The city's subtropical climate produces consistent heat patterns in late July, though occasional typhoon systems or upper-level troughs can introduce variability. Weather Underground's historical records for Shanghai Pudong show that temperatures exceeding 36°C occur in roughly 15–20% of July days across a thirty-year baseline, whilst readings below 30°C are rare. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders may be anchored to a narrow expected range rather than pricing genuine uncertainty across the full spectrum of possible outcomes.

Monitoring China Meteorological Administration forecasts and tropical cyclone activity in the Western Pacific will be essential in the weeks preceding settlement. Any organised low-pressure system tracking towards the Yangtze River Delta region could suppress daytime highs by 3–5°C. Conversely, a high-pressure ridge centred over eastern China typically correlates with temperatures at or above the 35°C threshold. Real-time atmospheric data from late July will determine whether the current flat pricing reflects genuine consensus or simply illiquidity in this particular temperature band contract.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.