Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 13?

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Market context

Shanghai's daily maximum temperature on 13 June 2026 will be recorded at Pudong International Airport Station and resolved against historical weather data from Wunderground. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on that date, meaning traders must commit positions before the full day's peak temperature is known with certainty.

June in Shanghai typically sees maximum temperatures between 28°C and 32°C, with occasional spikes above 33°C during heat waves. The 0% crowd-implied probability suggests the market may be pricing in an unusually narrow temperature band or reflecting thin liquidity rather than genuine forecasting consensus. Historical June records at Pudong show the station has recorded highs exceeding 35°C on rare occasions, though such extremes occur in roughly 5–10% of June days across a thirty-year sample. The current probability distribution appears disconnected from seasonal climatology, indicating either a specific temperature threshold has been set extremely high or the market lacks sufficient trading activity to establish reliable odds.

Traders should monitor China Meteorological Administration forecasts released in early June, which typically provide ten-day outlooks with reasonable accuracy for Shanghai. The East Asian summer monsoon onset timing—usually occurring between late May and mid-June—will materially affect whether subtropical heat dominates or cooler maritime air masses prevail. Any significant weather system tracking toward the Yangtze River Delta in the week preceding 13 June could shift temperature expectations substantially. Real-time atmospheric pressure patterns and sea-surface temperatures in the East China Sea warrant close attention as June approaches.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 13? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Best Prediction Markets is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.