Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 21?

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Market context

Shanghai Pudong International Airport is expected to see a warm, but not exceptional, June day, with the local forecast pointing to a high around 18°C and clear enough conditions for temperatures to lift through the afternoon.[1] That sits well below the airport’s summer extremes, where highs above 30°C are common and 35°C is possible in very sunny weather, so the contract’s current 0% YES implied probability looks consistent with a market that sees the top temperature likely landing in a lower Celsius band rather than a heat-driven range.[4][7]

On comparables, June at Pudong usually produces highs in the low 30s °C at the upper end, but the climatology still leaves a broad spread, with rare days pushing towards the low 90s Fahrenheit and many days clustered closer to the high 20s °C or below.[3] By contrast, nearby Shanghai airport observations on the day show 28°C with thundery showers and humid conditions at Hongqiao, which is a useful reminder that local cloud cover and shower tracks can keep different parts of the city apart by several degrees even on the same afternoon.[2] That supports a low-probability reading for the upper temperature ranges, and it also explains why sportsbook-style line pricing, where available, would likely sit materially lower than a naive seasonal forecast.

The main catalysts are the day’s actual cloud, rain and wind evolution at Pudong, because the settlement source uses the highest recorded temperature at Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station on 21 June from Wunderground.[1] Meteoblue’s airport forecast currently shows a sunny day after some overnight cloud, with moderate breezes and gusts, which can help temperatures rise but also signals some uncertainty if marine influence or convective cloud builds later on.[1] Traders should watch the hourly airport observations rather than city-wide forecasts, since the settlement depends on the station’s own maximum rather than a Shanghai average, and any afternoon shower line could cap the reading before the day’s peak is set.[1][2]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Best Prediction Markets is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on Best Prediction Markets?

Zero. Best Prediction Markets routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.