Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 22?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Shanghai Pudong International Airport is usually warm in late June, with average daily highs at the airport climbing through the month and rarely falling below 20.5°C or rising above 33.3°C. That makes the contract’s 0% YES price look detached from the climatology: a highest temperature somewhere in the low- to mid-30s is a normal outcome for this date, even before considering day-specific weather. June is also the opening of the local hot season, which WeatherSpark places from 17 June to 16 September at this station.[1][5]

Comparable cases suggest the key question is not whether Shanghai can reach the 30s, but whether the day finishes near the upper end of the range or gets capped by cloud, rain, or marine airflow. AccuWeather’s current forecast for the airport shows an afternoon thunderstorm risk and heavy rain late on 22 June, which would usually limit the peak versus a clear, sun-drenched day; at the same time, its monthly outlook still points to highs of roughly 24–34°C across June 2026.[2][8] No sportsbook line was visible in the supplied results, so the only clear cross-platform signal is that the prediction market is pricing an outcome far below what the seasonal and forecast context would normally imply.[1][2]

Traders should watch the afternoon convective forecast rather than the morning temperature, because the settlement source uses the day’s highest reading at Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, not the official noon mark. The National Weather Service time series for ZSPD shows the day’s temperatures still evolving after 06:00 UTC, and AccuWeather flags thunderstorms later on Monday and into Tuesday morning, which means cloud cover, rain timing, and any short-lived clearing will matter more than the starting point.[2][3]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Best Prediction Markets is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Best Prediction Markets?

Zero. Best Prediction Markets routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.