Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 27?

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Market context

The underlying event is the highest temperature recorded at Shanghai Pudong International Airport on 27 June 2026, a date falling squarely within the city’s peak summer heat season. Historical data shows daily highs in late June typically range from 77°F to 83°F (25°C to 28°C), rarely dipping below 69°F or exceeding 92°F (33°C) [3]. Summer peaks regularly surpass 30°C (86°F), with the most intense sunny days reaching 35°C (95°F) [5]. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% for a specific high-temperature range appears starkly divergent from these established climatic norms, suggesting either a mispricing in the prediction market or an unusually narrow definition of the target range that contradicts analyst consensus on typical June extremes.

Traders should monitor real-time forecasts for local thunderstorms and precipitation, which Meteoblue indicates have a 60% probability for the afternoon of 27 June, potentially suppressing peak temperatures [1]. Light to gentle breezes from the east (4–12 mph) are also expected, which may moderate heat accumulation [1]. The key dependency is the Wunderground dataset, which will resolve the market based on the highest recorded temperature for all times on that day [source: market description]. No major weather announcements are scheduled, but the medium predictability of the current forecast means rapid shifts in cloud cover or storm activity could alter the outcome significantly. The divergence between sportsbook lines (if any exist for weather derivatives) and this 0% implied probability warrants cross-platform scrutiny, as the historical baseline strongly supports a non-zero chance for any reasonable high-temperature bracket.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

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