Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 29?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying event is the highest temperature recorded at Shanghai Pudong International Airport on 29 June 2026, measured in degrees Celsius. Historical data shows June highs at this station typically climb from 77°F to 83°F (25°C to 28°C), rarely dipping below 69°F or exceeding 92°F (33°C) [1]. Summer conditions regularly push temperatures above 30°C, reaching 35°C during peak sunshine [4]. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% for any specific range suggests the market may be mispricing the likelihood of a standard summer day, as comparable years consistently produce highs within the 25–30°C band [1][6].

Traders should monitor the 25% risk of thunderstorms and light rain forecast for 29 June, which could suppress peak temperatures below the seasonal average [5]. The settlement depends entirely on Wunderground’s official daily high for the Pudong station, with no alternative data sources accepted [7]. Analyst consensus on similar weather contracts often diverges from sportsbook lines when precipitation risks are elevated, as oddsbooks may overvalue clear-sky scenarios while prediction markets adjust for cloud cover and rain [5]. With the hot season officially beginning 17 June, any sudden shift in solar energy or wind speed could alter the outcome, though average wind remains constant at 11.3 mph throughout June [1][6].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 29? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.