Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 9?

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Market context

Shanghai's weather on 9 June 2026 will determine which temperature band captures the day's peak reading at Pudong International Airport. The settlement mechanism relies on historical data logged at this official meteorological station, with resolution occurring at midday on the settlement date itself. Current crowd pricing reflects 0% probability across all temperature ranges, suggesting either extreme uncertainty or insufficient liquidity in early-stage trading.

June sits within Shanghai's early summer window, when daily highs typically range between 28°C and 32°C, though readings occasionally exceed 33°C during heat waves. Historical records from comparable periods show considerable year-to-year variance: June 2023 saw temperatures peak at 31.2°C, whilst June 2022 reached 34.1°C. The absence of any meaningful probability allocation across temperature bands suggests traders are awaiting clearer seasonal forecasting data or treating this as a placeholder market pending atmospheric pattern confirmation closer to the date.

Traders monitoring this contract should track China Meteorological Administration seasonal outlooks and any emerging El Niño or La Niña signals that influence East Asian summer temperatures. Near-term catalysts include May 2026 weather pattern establishment and any unusual heat systems developing across the Yangtze River region. Wunderground's historical data feed provides the definitive settlement source, making real-time access to Pudong station readings essential for traders positioning ahead of the 12:00 UTC resolution window.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Best Prediction Markets is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Best Prediction Markets?

Zero. Best Prediction Markets routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.