Highest temperature in Shanghai on May 22?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Shanghai Pudong International Airport’s highest reading on 22 May will be set by the warmest observation before the market’s midday UTC settlement window closes, leaving only the early part of the local day to count. The current market shows 0% implied for a YES outcome, which is consistent with the fact that late-day heat in Shanghai would be irrelevant to resolution and that today’s run-up has to clear the highest reading early, not by afternoon conditions.

The historical frame is mixed but not especially supportive of an extreme print. Shanghai’s May climate is usually warm rather than hot, with typical highs around the mid-to-high 20s C; weather averages and seasonal guides put May highs near 26°C, while broader monthly datasets show daily highs commonly topping out in the low-to-mid 20s and only rarely reaching the mid-30s. Reuters, via Yale Environment 360, recently reported Shanghai’s hottest May weather on record at 36.1°C on 19 May, underlining that exceptional heat is possible, but that was a citywide record-type event rather than a baseline for the airport station. On that comparison, the 0% market price looks like a strong sceptical read, closer to analyst consensus on a normal late-spring day than to an extreme-heat tail risk.

For traders, the key catalyst is not a scheduled policy release but the evolution of the local weather pattern into the late morning, including any residual warmth from the previous day, cloud cover, wind direction and whether a maritime breeze holds down the airport station’s peak. The most relevant dependency is the final Wunderground history entry for Shanghai Pudong International Airport, as the contract resolves to the highest recorded temperature there during the stated window. If the pre-settlement hours stay near climatological norms, the market should remain anchored near zero; if another unusually warm air mass lingers after the recent record heat, the main question is whether it can arrive before the window closes.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.