Highest temperature in Shanghai on May 26?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Shanghai's weather on 26 May 2026 will be measured against historical May temperatures at Pudong International Airport, where the station records daily highs. The market settlement depends entirely on the highest temperature recorded at that specific monitoring point during the calendar day, with resolution sourced from Weather Underground's historical database once the day concludes.

May in Shanghai typically sees temperatures in the high 20s to low 30s Celsius, with the airport station recording average highs around 28–30°C during this period. Historical data from previous May 26ths shows considerable variation: some years have peaked near 32°C whilst others remained closer to 25°C, reflecting the transition between spring and early summer weather patterns in the Yangtze River Delta region. The 0% crowd probability suggests either a technical issue with market initialisation or extremely narrow confidence bands around a specific temperature range, making cross-platform comparison difficult given limited sportsbook coverage of granular weather outcomes.

Traders monitoring this contract should track China Meteorological Administration forecasts released in the week preceding 26 May, particularly any alerts regarding heat waves or unusual pressure systems affecting eastern China. Seasonal typhoon activity, though less common in late May than June onwards, can occasionally influence Shanghai's weather patterns. The settlement window closes at midday UTC, creating a potential lag between local observation and final resolution; traders should verify Pudong station's reporting schedule to confirm whether all daily readings will be captured before the deadline.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Best Prediction Markets?

Zero. Best Prediction Markets routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.