Highest temperature in Shenzhen on August 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shenzhen’s early-August heat is normally well into the low 30s Celsius, with climate guides clustering around an average high of about 32°C to 32.2°C and typical August daily highs near 89°F to 90°F; long-run summaries also show rare but not exceptional spikes to the high 30s Celsius in the city. That matters for this contract because the settlement is based on the *highest* temperature at Shenzhen Bao’an International Airport on 1 August, not the daily mean, so a midday surge above the ordinary monthly high is the relevant outcome. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% YES looks materially below the historical temperature profile, and more in line with an expectation of missing data or a narrowly defined temperature band than with normal August heat.[4][5][6][7][8][15]

Comparable August readings in Shenzhen show a stable warm-season base rather than a low-temperature regime: average highs sit near 87°F to 90°F, while historical records cited by weather aggregators reach roughly 100°F to 104°F in the broader Shenzhen area. In other words, the statistical distribution is centred far above the lower bands that a 0% market would imply, so any disagreement between prediction-market pricing and a sportsbook-style line would likely come down to how the airport station’s observed maximum is bucketed, or whether rain/cloud cover suppresses the day’s peak.[1][3][7][12][15]

For traders, the main catalysts are the same-day forecast updates, typhoon or tropical-depression tracks in the South China Sea, and the timing of afternoon convection, all of which can cap or lift the airport’s maximum by a few degrees. Shenzhen’s August climate is also notably humid and rain-prone, with several sources flagging elevated rainfall and typhoon risk in the month, so the key dependency is whether a clear, hot window develops before showers arrive. The market resolves from Wunderground’s station history for Shenzhen Bao’an International Airport, making the airport-specific reading more important than citywide forecasts or generic Shenzhen climate averages.[3][8][15][19][16]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Shenzhen on August 1? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.