Highest temperature in Shenzhen on August 14?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 14 August 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport will determine the settlement outcome for this market. The resolution hinges on the Daily Observations table from Weather Underground rather than the Day High & Low summary, a distinction that occasionally produces materially different readings due to measurement timing and station-specific calibration protocols.

Shenzhen's August climatology provides the essential baseline for calibrating expectations. The city experiences peak summer heat during this month, with historical daily maxima typically ranging between 32–35°C, though readings occasionally exceed 36°C during particularly intense heat waves. The 0% crowd probability currently reflected suggests traders are either awaiting clearer seasonal forecasts or treating this as a placeholder position pending nearer-term meteorological data. Comparable August days at Bao'an have produced highs spanning a 4–5°C range depending on monsoon intensity and urban heat-island effects, meaning the eventual temperature band will carry meaningful differentiation across the available options.

Traders should monitor the China Meteorological Administration's extended forecasts from late July onwards, as these typically provide the most reliable guidance for regional heat patterns two to three weeks ahead. Tropical cyclone activity in the western Pacific during early August could suppress temperatures through increased cloud cover and precipitation, whilst high-pressure systems anchored over southern China would favour extreme heat. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on 14 August, requiring resolution data availability from Weather Underground within hours of the daily observation period ending.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Shenzhen on August 14? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.