Highest temperature in Shenzhen on August 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market concerns the highest temperature recorded at Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport on 16 August 2026, with settlement based on Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are not currently backing any specific temperature range for this future date, indicating either extreme uncertainty or a lack of trading activity on this particular contract.

Shenzhen's August temperatures are remarkably consistent year-on-year, with historical data showing daily highs typically between 31–34°C during mid-August. The city experiences its peak summer heat in this period, with occasional readings reaching 35°C or above during heat waves, though such extremes occur in roughly 15–20% of August days across the past decade. This historical clustering provides a baseline for evaluating which temperature ranges carry genuine predictive weight versus those reflecting outlier conditions.

The primary catalyst affecting August 2026 temperatures will be broader East Asian monsoon patterns and any anomalous tropical systems approaching the South China coast in that timeframe. El Niño or La Niña conditions developing through 2025–2026 could shift baseline temperatures upward or downward by 1–2°C relative to climatological norms. Traders should monitor seasonal forecasts issued by the China Meteorological Administration in the months preceding August 2026, as these typically provide the most reliable guidance for regional temperature expectations. The resolution methodology—specifically the reliance on Bao'an Airport's official observations rather than urban heat-island readings—anchors the outcome to a standardised measurement point, reducing ambiguity around settlement.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.