Highest temperature in Shenzhen on August 21?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 21 August 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station will determine the settlement of this contract. The market currently shows zero implied probability across the prediction-market aggregate, suggesting traders view the outcome as either extremely unlikely or are awaiting clarification on the specific temperature thresholds available for trading. Resolution will depend on the Daily Observations table from Weather Underground rather than summary figures, a distinction that occasionally produces discrepancies in historical weather data.

Shenzhen's August temperatures typically range between 26°C and 33°C, with the city experiencing its hottest conditions during mid-to-late summer. Historical records from Bao'an Airport show August highs consistently exceed 30°C, with extreme readings occasionally reaching 34–35°C during heat waves. The absence of any meaningful probability allocation suggests either that the available temperature ranges do not align with climatological norms for the date, or that traders are waiting for additional contract specifications before committing capital.

Traders monitoring this contract should track China Meteorological Administration forecasts released in early August 2026, which typically provide 10–14 day outlooks for Guangdong Province. Any significant heat-wave warnings or tropical cyclone activity affecting southern China in late August could shift expectations. The resolution window closes at 12:00 UTC on 21 August, allowing only morning observations from the airport station to count; afternoon readings will not be included, which may explain the current flat probability if traders anticipate the settlement window captures cooler morning temperatures rather than daily peaks.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Shenzhen on August 21? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.