Highest temperature in Shenzhen on July 28?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 28 July 2026, Shenzhen will record a daily high temperature at Bao'an International Airport, with settlement determined by historical weather data from Wunderground. The market currently shows 0% implied probability across all temperature ranges, suggesting either a data-loading issue or extreme uncertainty about which bracket will ultimately contain the recorded maximum.

Shenzhen's July climate is consistently hot and humid, with historical daily highs typically ranging between 32–35°C during the month. Records from the past decade show that extreme heat above 36°C occurs in roughly 15–20% of July days, whilst readings below 30°C are rare. The 0% crowd probability across all ranges is unusual given that meteorological patterns in South China are reasonably predictable at the seasonal level, even if day-specific forecasts carry meaningful uncertainty. This suggests traders have not yet engaged with the market or that the interface requires calibration before meaningful odds emerge.

Weather forecasting for late July 2026 remains beyond current operational horizons; no major meteorological agencies publish extended outlooks beyond 14 days. Traders should monitor tropical cyclone activity in the Western Pacific during early-to-mid July, as systems tracking toward southern China can suppress temperatures through cloud cover and precipitation, whilst high-pressure systems typically drive readings toward the upper end of the seasonal range. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 28 July, giving traders access to official forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and international models approximately 7–10 days before resolution.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.