Highest temperature in Shenzhen on May 26?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Shenzhen's weather on 26 May 2026 will be measured against historical May temperatures at Bao'an International Airport, where the station records daily highs. Late May in Shenzhen typically sits in the warm-to-hot range, with average highs around 30–32°C and occasional peaks above 33°C during pre-monsoon conditions. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either awaiting clarity on the specific temperature bands available in the market or treating the contract as nascent with insufficient liquidity to establish meaningful odds.

Historical May data from Shenzhen shows considerable year-to-year variation. The airport station has recorded May highs ranging from the mid-20s°C during cooler years to above 35°C in warmer ones, with the most frequent outcomes clustering between 30–33°C. Comparable May 26 dates from prior years provide limited predictive power given the influence of monsoon onset timing and broader atmospheric patterns, though the South China pre-monsoon season typically brings elevated temperatures and humidity.

The resolution depends entirely on Wunderground's historical record for Bao'an station on that specific date, with no interim announcements or forecasts affecting the outcome once May 26 passes. Traders should note that long-range weather forecasts beyond two weeks carry substantial uncertainty, and current meteorological models for May 2026 are not yet reliable. The market's current zero probability reflects the absence of trading activity rather than consensus expectation; comparable weather markets on established platforms show similar dormancy for dates this distant.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Shenzhen on May 26? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Best Prediction Markets — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Best Prediction Markets is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Best Prediction Markets?

Zero. Best Prediction Markets routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Best Prediction Markets triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.