Highest temperature in Singapore on May 26?

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Market context

Singapore's daily maximum temperature on 26 May 2026 will be recorded at Changi Airport Station and resolved against historical weather data from Wunderground. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on that date, meaning traders must assess the likely range before the final afternoon hours of the day have fully elapsed.

Singapore's equatorial climate produces remarkably consistent daily maxima throughout the year, with May typically recording highs between 32°C and 34°C at Changi. Historical records show that extreme outliers—temperatures exceeding 35°C—occur in fewer than 5% of May days, whilst readings below 31°C are similarly rare. The 0% crowd probability currently implied suggests traders are either awaiting range options to appear or treating this as a placeholder market pending clarification on specific temperature bands. Comparable weather markets on other prediction platforms show modest trading volumes for Singapore temperature contracts, reflecting both the predictability of tropical climates and limited retail interest in meteorological specifics.

The key variable affecting 26 May's reading will be monsoon activity and cloud cover patterns in the preceding weeks. The northeast monsoon typically concludes by May, but transitional weather systems can suppress afternoon temperatures through increased convection and rainfall. Traders should monitor the Meteorological Department of Singapore's seasonal forecasts and any anomalous pressure systems developing over Southeast Asia in late April and early May. Recent years have seen occasional May days reach 35°C during particularly dry spells, though sustained heat waves remain uncommon during this month compared to June through August.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Best Prediction Markets is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Best Prediction Markets?

Zero. Best Prediction Markets routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.